Counterpoint Research: Global Smartphone Shipments Hit 12-Year Low in 2026; Huawei May Be the Only Survivor Among Chinese Brands

According to the latest “Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker Report” released by market research firm Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to decline 13.9% year-on-year to approximately 1.08 billion units, marking the lowest annual level since 2013. The downturn is even sharper than the 12.4% decline forecast in February of this year.

The report points to tight memory supply as the key driver of this market slump. Due to wafer fab capacity being reallocated to AI-driven HBM and server DRAM, mobile LPDDR4/5 prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to roughly triple compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, with LPDDR4 supply shrinking by more than 40%. Supply constraints are expected to persist until the second half of 2027. In the first quarter of 2026, global smartphone wholesale prices rose 14% year-on-year. As earlier inventories are gradually absorbed, the upward price trend continues, and some segments priced below $150 are facing the risk of gradual phase-out.

In terms of brand performance, the divergence is stark. Apple and Samsung, leveraging their supply chain integration capabilities and product structure advantages, are in a stronger position. iPhone shipments in 2026 are expected to remain largely stable, while Samsung's annual shipments are forecast to decline only 4%. Among Chinese OEMs, Huawei is the only Chinese brand expected to achieve shipment growth in 2026, reflecting its stable memory supply and strong supply chain integration capabilities.

In the first quarter of 2026, Huawei performed strongly in the domestic Chinese market. According to Omdia and multiple other data sources, Huawei secured the top spot in China's smartphone market with shipments of 13.9 million units and a 20% market share, growing 7% year-on-year. This marks Huawei's highest quarterly share since the fourth quarter of 2020. Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam noted that the production ramp-up of the Mate 80 series, along with aggressive promotional campaigns during the Spring Festival, were key to Huawei's stable position. Strong shipments of the Enjoy 90 series further reinforced its competitiveness across different price segments.

In contrast, Xiaomi's domestic shipments in the first quarter of 2026 fell 35% year-on-year, with a full-year decline of 28% expected. Transsion is forecast to decline 32%, placing it among the worst-performing major vendors. Yang Wang, Chief Analyst at Counterpoint Research, stated that the memory supply crunch is one of the most significant supply-side events in recent years, and low-to-mid-tier OEMs are caught in a dual dilemma: rising costs are difficult to absorb, while consumer purchasing power remains under rigid constraints.

As supply gradually recovers, pent-up demand is released, and commercial 6G networks and AI-native devices mature, the market is expected to rebound in 2028. Meanwhile, the second-hand and refurbished phone market is projected to grow 13% in 2026, reflecting how consumer demand for value for money is reshaping the market ecosystem.