The transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry continues to advance

Stable and increasing production end

Enterprise production continues to expand. Recently, China's manufacturing enterprises have continued to expand their production, with a production index of 50.6%. Although it has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, it is still above the critical point. From an industry perspective, the production index of industries such as metal products, railway ships, aerospace equipment, etc. is all above 55.0%, and the production of related industries maintains rapid growth.

The new order index is basically unchanged. Affected by the contraction of demand in the basic raw material market, the new order index in June was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The new export order index was 48.3%, unchanged from last month.

The price index has fallen slightly. Affected by factors such as the recent decline in prices of some commodities and insufficient market demand, the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 51.7% and 47.9%, respectively, a decrease of 5.2 and 2.5 percentage points from the previous month.

According to Wen Tao, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, based on the changes in the new order index and new export order index, the overall market demand is relatively stable. However, from the level of the index and feedback from enterprises, the market demand continues to be weak. According to a survey conducted by enterprises, the proportion of manufacturing companies that reflect insufficient market demand is 62.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing companies have a strong sense of weak market demand.

Improvement of micro subject vitality

New driving forces are accelerating growth. From the perspective of key industries, in June, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 52.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion range for 8 consecutive months; The equipment manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months. Zhao Qinghe's analysis indicates that the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry continues to advance, and new quality productivity continues to develop and grow.

The vitality of micro subjects has improved. Large enterprises are operating steadily, small and medium-sized enterprises are stabilizing and improving, and the vitality of micro entities has improved. In June, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.1%, maintaining at 50% or above for 14 consecutive months; The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The PMI for small businesses was 47.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

The pressure of raw material costs has fallen in the short term. In June, after experiencing two consecutive months of rapid increases, the growth rate of raw material prices in the manufacturing industry slowed down significantly, with a purchase price index of 51.7%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the previous month.

From the changes in sub indices, it can be seen that the production side is steadily increasing, new driving forces are accelerating growth, micro subject vitality has improved, raw material cost pressure has fallen in the short term, and the overall economic operation is stable. However, the problem of insufficient market demand needs further attention, "said Wen Tao.

Summarizing the trend of manufacturing PMI from January to June, Wentao stated that the overall stability and recovery of China's economy remained the main tone in the first half of this year. The average manufacturing PMI from January to June was 49.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the average in the second half of 2023. Although the monthly index has fluctuated, the development trend of stable and increasing production, continuous optimization of industrial structure, and stable and positive development of large enterprises is relatively clear.

Manufacturing enterprises continue to be optimistic about the future outlook, with a production and operation activity expectation index of 54.4% in June, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, it has continued to operate at 54% or above.

Non manufacturing industries continue to expand

From the perspective of non manufacturing industries, in June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the non manufacturing industry continued to expand.

The prosperity level of the service industry has slightly declined. The service industry business activity index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from last month. From an industry perspective, the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance, etc. is in the high prosperity range of over 55%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly; The business activity index of industries such as capital market services and real estate continues to operate at a low level, indicating a relatively low level of prosperity.

The expansion of the construction industry has slowed down. Recently, there has been continuous heavy rainfall in many southern regions, which has affected the construction industry to a certain extent. The business activity index of the construction industry is 52.3%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 54.7%, indicating that most construction companies remain optimistic about the future development of the industry.

Zhao Qinghe stated that in June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have maintained expansion, but the pace of expansion has slowed down.

Recently, a series of stable economic policies have continued to strengthen and move forward. Six departments jointly released the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Equipment Renewal in the Cultural and Tourism Fields" and deployed eight actions; The Ministry of Finance and other departments jointly issued a financial subsidy policy for equipment renewal loans; The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued the "Measures for Creating New Consumption Scenarios and Cultivating New Growth Points in Consumption". With the further implementation and refinement of policies, the effectiveness of relevant policies will be further released, continuously supporting the development of the real economy, "said Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics