Heavyweight! Analysis of the Basic Situation of Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry in 2024

In 2023, China's electronic information manufacturing industry has successfully stabilized under pressure amidst numerous risks and challenges, and continues to play an important role as a "ballast stone", "multiplier", and "catalyst" for the industrial economy. It is expected that the growth rate of China's electronic information manufacturing industry will be around 3% for the whole year, and revenue will remain unchanged from the previous year. Looking ahead to 2024, the driving force of China's electronic information manufacturing industry continues to strengthen, policy supply dividends continue to be released, the process of technological innovation industrialization is about to accelerate, the resilience and security level of the industrial chain supply chain continue to steadily improve, and the industry is expected to welcome more new opportunities while its growth rate further stabilizes.
The global electronic information manufacturing industry continues to be under pressure, and future recovery expectations remain unstable
The global electronic information manufacturing industry has been affected by factors such as the economic stimulus caused by the pandemic, transportation and logistics disruptions, regional technological and trade frictions, and has experienced severe market overdraft, repeated orders, and channel inventory backlog in the past three years. According to IDC data, it is expected that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.15 billion units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. In the third quarter of 2023, global PC shipments reached 68.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. According to SIA data, global semiconductor industry sales in the first half of 2023 were $244 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.79%.
Looking ahead to 2024, consumers in the "home economy" are entering a new round of device replacement window, mature MR products are expected to increase in volume, artificial intelligence application scenarios are accelerating, and the industry is expected to experience a mild recovery. Industry prediction agencies are generally optimistic. IDC predicts that the global smartphone market shipment volume will increase by 4.5% year-on-year in 2024; WSTS expects global semiconductor sales to grow by an overall 11.8%. However, the global political and economic situation remains unstable in 2024, with weak new global consumer demand and significant uncertainty in market recovery.
China's industrial growth rate is steadily recovering, creating a key engine for building a new type of industrialization
In 2023, China's electronic information manufacturing industry as a whole initially suppressed and then rose, with the cumulative growth rate of added value returning to positive in June, and growth accelerating month by month. Energy electronic products such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries are growing against the trend, with strong production and exports. The level of technological innovation is accelerating, and industry applications are expanding rapidly. As the "new three samples" of foreign trade, they have become a new business card for China's exports. From January to September 2023, the total export of "New Three Samples" products was 798.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, accounting for 1.3 percentage points more than the same period last year in China's exports, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters. The domestic demand market is upgrading and accelerating, and the development trend of high-end, intelligent, and green products is significant. High end products have achieved remarkable results. From January to September 2023, the shipment volume of foldable screen mobile phones in China reached 4.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96.5%; Mini LED backlit TVs sold 520000 units, a year-on-year increase of 159%; During the 618 promotion period, the retail sales of 75 inch and above products in China's online color TV market accounted for 34.9%, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
Looking ahead to 2024, the process of intelligent, integrated, and green development of China's economy and society is accelerating. The speed, depth, and breadth of empowering hundreds of industries with electronic information manufacturing will continue to strengthen, and will become a key engine for further accelerating the construction of new industrialization. Recently, a series of policy measures such as the Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2023 to 2024 have been released and implemented, and the domestic demand market will become an important pillar for the high-quality development of the industry; The pace of marketization in emerging fields such as advanced computing and new energy was accelerated, and the empowerment of traditional industries such as industrial Internet, smart agriculture and smart energy was accelerated, driving the rapid recovery of electronic information manufacturing industry. It is expected that the growth rate of added value in China's electronic information manufacturing industry will be in the range of 7% to 10% in 2024.
Forward looking fundamental innovation is once again igniting a wave of enthusiasm, accelerating the expansion of new industrial tracks
Global forward-looking and fundamental technological innovation competition has once again sparked a new wave. AIGC, represented by ChatGPT, has exploded in 2023 with the overall improvement of computing power and algorithms in the AI industry in recent years, triggering a large-scale increase in the industry's demand for AI computing power, and the industry is competing to invest. In recent years, near eye display technology has accelerated its maturity. In June 2023, Apple released its first MR head display product, Apple Vision Pro, driving a new round of VR/AR/MR product releases and upgrades, and gradually building a related application ecosystem. In the field of lithium-ion batteries, new materials, processes, and structures are constantly emerging, and the energy density of semi-solid and solid-state batteries is rapidly increasing. Fast charging technology has attracted market attention. The development and commercialization of 6G have been put on the agenda, and key technologies such as terahertz communication, integrated sensing, and satellite ground integrated networks have made significant progress. The industrialization process of multiple new technologies in various fields has further accelerated.
Looking ahead to 2024, the hot topic of artificial intelligence will continue, and the global demand for computing power will rapidly rise. The industry competition of artificial intelligence in the development progress of cutting-edge technologies, commercialization of products, market expansion, and industrial chain layout will further intensify. Emerging consumer electronics products such as smart wearable devices and smart homes, after two years of technological improvement and ecological construction, are expected to give birth to new hot products. Auto electronics, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other early high growth fields entered the key "window period" of technology route selection and technology pattern reconstruction, and new business forms and models such as industrial Internet, smart medicine, smart city accelerated transformation, enabling economic and social development, bringing about the improvement of overall productivity and production efficiency.
The resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain have steadily improved, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure have been further accelerated
In recent years, China has made significant progress in improving the security and reliability of its industrial and supply chains. In the past two years, upstream materials, equipment, and component projects that have been newly built and expanded have been put into operation in 2023, continuously enhancing the ability to ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains. In 2023, the production of major components continued to grow, with integrated circuit production reaching 276.53 billion units from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; The production of optoelectronic devices reached 1175.3 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. The increasing demand in industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and industrial control has also driven an increase in order volume for power devices, etching equipment, and other enterprises. The optimization and ecological construction of systems such as servers, supercomputers, and personal computers continue to advance, and the integrity and autonomy of the domestic computing industry have been greatly improved. The improvement of computing standards and evaluation systems is accelerating.
Looking ahead to 2024, the development of key materials, equipment, and components in the upstream of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to further accelerate, the ecological binding of upstream and downstream enterprises will continue to strengthen, and the industry's ability to withstand external shocks will be further strengthened. The industrial structure continues to optimize, and the safety and greening level of electronic components products continue to enhance. The proportion of high value-added enterprises in the industry will further increase, becoming a solid foundation to support the high-quality development of China's electronic information manufacturing industry.