The electronic information manufacturing industry is a key engine for promoting new industrialization

In 2023, China's electronic information manufacturing industry has successfully stabilized under pressure amidst numerous risks and challenges, and continues to play an important role as a "ballast stone", "multiplier", and "catalyst" for the industrial economy. It is expected that the growth rate of China's electronic information manufacturing industry will be around 3% for the whole year, and revenue will remain unchanged from the previous year. Looking ahead to 2024, the driving force of China's electronic information manufacturing industry continues to strengthen, policy supply dividends continue to be released, the process of technological innovation industrialization is about to accelerate, the resilience and security level of the industrial chain supply chain continue to steadily improve, and the industry is expected to welcome more new opportunities while its growth rate further stabilizes.
Basic judgment on the situation in 2024
（1） The global electronic information manufacturing industry continues to be under pressure, and future recovery expectations remain unstable
The global electronic information manufacturing industry has been affected by factors such as the economic stimulus caused by the pandemic, transportation and logistics disruptions, regional technological and trade frictions, and has experienced severe market overdraft, repeated orders, and channel inventory backlog in the past three years. According to IDC data, it is expected that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.15 billion units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. In the third quarter of 2023, global PC shipments reached 68.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. According to SIA data, global semiconductor industry sales in the first half of 2023 were $244 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.79%.
Looking ahead to 2024, consumers in the "home economy" are entering a new round of device replacement window, mature MR products are expected to increase in volume, artificial intelligence application scenarios are accelerating, and the industry is expected to experience a mild recovery. Industry prediction agencies are generally optimistic. IDC predicts that the global smartphone market shipment volume will increase by 4.5% year-on-year in 2024; WSTS expects global semiconductor sales to grow by an overall 11.8%. However, the global political and economic situation remains unstable in 2024, with weak new global consumer demand and significant uncertainty in market recovery.
（2） China's industrial growth rate is steadily recovering, creating a key engine for building a new type of industrialization
In 2023, China's electronic information manufacturing industry as a whole initially suppressed and then rose, with the cumulative growth rate of added value returning to positive in June, and growth accelerating month by month. Energy electronic products such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries are growing against the trend, with strong production and exports. The level of technological innovation is accelerating, and industry applications are expanding rapidly. As the "new three samples" of foreign trade, they have become a new business card for China's exports. From January to September 2023, the total export of "New Three Samples" products was 798.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, accounting for 1.3 percentage points more than the same period last year in China's exports, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters. The domestic demand market is upgrading and accelerating, and the development trend of high-end, intelligent, and green products is significant. High end products have achieved remarkable results. From January to September 2023, the shipment volume of foldable screen mobile phones in China reached 4.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96.5%; Mini LED backlit TVs sold 520000 units, a year-on-year increase of 159%; During the 618 promotion period, the retail sales of 75 inch and above products in China's online color TV market accounted for 34.9%, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
Looking ahead to 2024, the process of intelligent, integrated, and green development of China's economy and society is accelerating. The speed, depth, and breadth of empowering hundreds of industries with electronic information manufacturing will continue to strengthen, and will become a key engine for further accelerating the construction of new industrialization. Recently, a series of policy measures such as the Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2023 to 2024 have been released and implemented, and the domestic demand market will become an important pillar for the high-quality development of the industry; The pace of marketization in emerging fields such as advanced computing and new energy is accelerating, while traditional industries such as industrial internet, smart agriculture, and smart energy are empowering and upgrading, driving the rapid recovery of the electronic information manufacturing industry. It is expected that the growth rate of added value in China's electronic information manufacturing industry will be in the range of 7% to 10% in 2024.
（3） Forward looking fundamental innovation is once again igniting a wave of enthusiasm, accelerating the expansion of new industrial tracks
Global forward-looking and fundamental technological innovation competition has once again sparked a new wave. AIGC, represented by ChatGPT, has exploded in 2023 with the overall improvement of computing power and algorithms in the AI industry in recent years, triggering a large-scale increase in the industry's demand for AI computing power, and the industry is competing to invest. In recent years, near eye display technology has accelerated its maturity. In June 2023, Apple released its first MR head display product, Apple Vision Pro, driving a new round of VR/AR/MR product releases and upgrades, and gradually building a related application ecosystem. In the field of lithium-ion batteries, new materials, processes, and structures are constantly emerging, and the energy density of semi-solid and solid-state batteries is rapidly increasing. Fast charging technology has attracted market attention. The development and commercialization of 6G have been put on the agenda, and key technologies such as terahertz communication, integrated sensing, and satellite ground integrated networks have made significant progress. The industrialization process of multiple new technologies in various fields has further accelerated.
Looking ahead to 2024, the hot topic of artificial intelligence will continue, and the global demand for computing power will rapidly rise. The industry competition of artificial intelligence in the development progress of cutting-edge technologies, commercialization of products, market expansion, and industrial chain layout will further intensify. Emerging consumer electronics products such as smart wearable devices and smart homes, after two years of technological improvement and ecological construction, are expected to give birth to new hot products. The early high-speed growth fields such as automotive electronics, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics have entered a critical "window period" for technology route selection and technological pattern reconstruction. New formats and models such as industrial internet, smart healthcare, and smart cities are accelerating their transformation, empowering economic and social development, and bringing about an overall improvement in production capacity and efficiency.
（4） The resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain have steadily improved, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure have been further accelerated
In recent years, China has made significant progress in improving the security and reliability of its industrial and supply chains. In the past two years, upstream materials, equipment, and component projects that have been newly built and expanded have been put into operation in 2023, continuously enhancing the ability to ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains. In 2023, the production of major components continued to grow, with integrated circuit production reaching 276.53 billion units from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; The production of optoelectronic devices reached 1175.3 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. The increasing demand in industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and industrial control has also driven an increase in order volume for power devices, etching equipment, and other enterprises. The optimization and ecological construction of systems such as servers, supercomputers, and personal computers continue to advance, and the integrity and autonomy of the domestic computing industry have been greatly improved. The improvement of computing standards and evaluation systems is accelerating.
Looking ahead to 2024, the development of key materials, equipment, and components in the upstream of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to further accelerate, the ecological binding of upstream and downstream enterprises will continue to strengthen, and the industry's ability to withstand external shocks will be further strengthened. The industrial structure continues to optimize, and the safety and greening level of electronic components products continue to enhance. The proportion of high value-added enterprises in the industry will further increase, becoming a solid foundation to support the high-quality development of China's electronic information manufacturing industry.
Several issues that need attention
（1） The increase of international "implicit" trade barriers and the division of "against economic laws" carry enormous risks
With the accelerated restructuring of global industrial and supply chains, countries have adopted various means to promote the return of manufacturing. In addition to explicit measures such as export controls and tariff barriers, there has been a significant increase in "implicit" trade restrictions in recent times under the pretext of risk reduction, external dependence reduction, and green environmental protection. The electronic information industry has a high concentration of technology and capital, a long industrial chain, multiple segmented fields, and significant economies of scale. It has been relying on global industrial division of labor and cross-border market ecological integration for decades to successfully maintain high-speed development and active innovation. "Hidden trade barriers" may lead to the division of the global electronic information industry chain supply chain pattern, causing a heavy blow to the normal operation of the industry chain supply chain.
（2） Cross border intellectual property disputes continue, and the competition for international industrial discourse power is escalating
International technological competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and intellectual property disputes have always been an important tool for competition among enterprises outside trade barriers. In recent years, China's enterprise technology has gradually approached the international advanced level, and intellectual property disputes have entered a high incidence stage. Standards and patent competition are important ways for the electronic information manufacturing industry to establish its voice and position after reaching a certain stage of development. With the accelerated pace of China's electronic information enterprises going global, competition with foreign leading enterprises in the fields of standards and patents will become increasingly fierce, and intellectual property protection disputes with relevant departments and committees of foreign governments may continue for a long time.
（3） The undertaking of industries in the central, western, and northeastern regions still needs to be accelerated, and the balance of regional development needs to be further optimized
The regional development of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is still uneven, with the top three provinces along the eastern coast accounting for over 50% of the country's output value, and the Northeast region accounting for less than 1% of the country's output value. At present, China's electronic information industry is in a historical opportunity period of reshaping and transforming the supply chain and ecological chain. Vigorously promoting the transfer of the electronic information industry in the central and western regions is not only an inherent requirement to comply with the global economic development trend and participate in international industrial division of labor cooperation, but also an important measure to promote industrial structure adjustment and accelerate the transformation of development mode. The central and western regions, as well as the northeastern regions, should follow the rules and follow the trend, deeply tap into the characteristics and potential of regional industries, strengthen the construction of supporting capabilities, give full play to the "magnetic field effect", continuously improve the ability to undertake industries, and promote the formation of a development pattern of regional coordination, mutual promotion, and orderly transfer in China.
（4） The shortage of high-tech talents is becoming more prominent, restricting the rapid development of the industry
With the transformation and upgrading of China's electronic information manufacturing industry from relying on factor advantages to innovation driven and brand competition, the demand for high-tech talents continues to increase. The industry is facing urgent challenges of a shortage of high-end talents. Among them, enterprises in the fields of materials, equipment, and electronic components are in a stage of rapid expansion, and the shortage of high-end talents is particularly prominent.
Suggestions for countermeasures to be taken
（1） Vigorously do a good job in boosting consumption and accelerating the cultivation of emerging growth points
Taking into account the long-term pressure on the traditional consumer electronics market, we will promote consumption and stabilize growth as our long-term work in the future. Accelerate the implementation of relevant policy measures such as the Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2023 to 2024, and promote the long-term and normalization of policies such as consumer vouchers, household appliances for rural areas, and subsidies for new energy vehicles. Increase financial and credit support, guide and encourage enterprises to accelerate their expansion into emerging fields such as automotive electronics, medical electronics, industrial electronics, and energy electronics. Encourage consumption subsidy policies in various regions to tilt towards consumption upgrading areas such as smart terminals, smart homes, and smart healthcare, and accelerate the process of cultivating new products and formats.
（2） Ensure the landing and commencement of key projects, and further expand effective investment space
Give full play to the supporting and empowering role of the electronic information manufacturing industry in the industrial economy, further increase the support for the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional manufacturing, and promote the continuous expansion of investment in digital infrastructure and industrial digital equipment production projects. Promote various regions to quickly transform the recent achievements of industrial docking and investment attraction into key landing projects, improve quality and efficiency, promote the high-end transformation of enterprises, and enhance profitability. Further improve and expand the investment mechanism, strengthen government guidance and investment fund drive, guide social capital to enhance the recognition of effective investment in industries, increase support for key areas and leading enterprises, and continuously optimize the efficiency of industrial investment utilization.
（3） Continuously increasing fundamental and forward-looking technological innovation, and continuously promoting the healthy development of industrial and supply chains
Fully utilize the advantages of the large market of major countries, adhere to application driven development, focus on key technologies with first mover advantages and basic cutting-edge technologies that lead future development, attach importance to common basic scientific knowledge innovation and collaborative multi-party innovation goals. Long term support for the development and growth of high value-added links such as electronic materials, electronic equipment, high-end components, and complete machine brands, enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of China's industries.
（4） Innovate talent cultivation models and continuously strengthen the construction of professional talent echelons
Innovate talent introduction models, increase the gradient cultivation of talents in cutting-edge fields, pay attention to the mismatch and effective connection of talent levels, specialties, and treatment, and strengthen and optimize policy support for outstanding talents. Accelerate the introduction of international talents who can break through key technologies and drive emerging disciplines, encourage enterprises and universities to carry out order based talent cultivation, build platforms for industrial entrepreneurs and professional talent exchange, improve the technical exchange mechanism for first-class scientific and technological personnel from universities, research institutions to enterprises, open up channels for domestic and foreign talent exchange and flow, and create a good atmosphere for talent attraction, cultivation, and retention.